Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH

[Peter Kuklok]

...der Vollständigkeit halber, anbei der erste STD Watch des Jahres:

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 17:50 UTC, 01 FEBRUARY 2003

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 02 FEBRUARY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 01 FEB (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 01 - 02 FEB

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 20, 12, 12 (01 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 09 - 15 HOUR

MINOR BELT = 15 - 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

WASHINGTON STATE TO IDAHO TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN

MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NORTHERN NEW YORK

STATE TO NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

SCOTLAND TO NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO SOUTHERN FINLAND AND

POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN REACHES GERMANY, POLAND, LITHUANIA, LATVIA AND

ESTONIA, TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. NEW ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN REGIONS

OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

A fairly strong interplanetary disturbance impacted the ACE spacecraft
near 13:07 UTC, most likely related to a filament eruption on 30 January.
Although conditions are not currently condusive to producing strong
enhancements of auroral activity, there is a notable potential conditions may
become capable of supporting moderate to strong levels of auroral storm
activity over the next 12 to 24 hours.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
02 February. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

** End of Watch **