Mid-latitude Auroral Activity WATCH

[Peter Kuklok]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 23:00 UTC, 30 APRIL 2003

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** CORRECTION **

VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC on 01 MAY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 03 MAY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 03 - 04 MAY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 03 - 05 MAY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 25, 23, 17, 15 (01 MAY - 04 MAY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 - 24 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 24 - 72 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

WASHINGTON TO IDAHO TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO

MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NEW YORK STATE TO

NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

UNITED KINGDOM (PRIMARILY NORTHERN SCOTLAND) TO EXTREME NORTHERN

NETHERLANDS TO EXTREME NORTHERN GERMANY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO NORTHERN

LATVIA TO ESTONIA TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA. SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND

AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE PERIODS OF

ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

A well placed solar coronal hole is beginning to sweep a high velocity
solar wind stream across the Earth. Periods of active to weak minor storm
level geomagnetic and auroral activity are expected to accompany this
disturbance. The most intense phase of activity is expected over the next 24
to 48 hours. There is a chance many middle latitude regions may spot periods
of sporadic activity. The near-new phase of the moon will promote optimally
dark skies.

There have been several noteworthy sightings of infrequent but
respectable auroral activity from several mid-latitude locations in eastern
to central North America (northern and eastern U.S. states). This trend may
continue with the arrival of this disturbance. That activity was fairly
isolated. The anticipated coronal hole based disturbance is expected to
provide a greater general opportunity for middle latitude observations and
this is the reason why this watch has been issued.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
03 May. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

** End of Watch **

[Ludvig N]

It seems that we can spott some Auroral activity
on Mid.Lat. tonight ...
Fingers crossed and clear skies!!!