STD: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH

[Peter Kuklok]

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 10:50 UTC, 16 JULY 2003

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 17 JULY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 16 JULY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 16 - 17 JULY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 23, 15, 15 (16 JULY - 19 JULY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 24 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: PRIOR TO AND NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE, BECOMING HIGH AFTER MOONRISE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL

MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK

STATE TO MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO NORTHERN DENMARK AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN

GERMANY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO SOUTHERN FINLAND AND POSSIBLY LATVIA AND

ESTONIA TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA.

NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTH EASTERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE

PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

Solar wind conditions have become favorable for the production of
auroral storm conditions. There is a fair chance many dark-sky middle
latitude regions may spot periods of activity, particularly within the next
6 to 12 hours (perhaps longer - depending on solar wind conditions).

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
17 July. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

** End of Watch **