IPS - Solar/Magnetic Forecast

[udo, dk5ya]

1B. SOLAR FORECAST

29 Sep 30 Sep 01 Oct
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 260/210 260/210 255/205

COMMENT: The M3 and M2 event were associated with coronal mass
ejections. Several solar regions now M class flare capable, with
chance of X class flaring.
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2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Sep 20 Unsettled to active, chance of minor storm conditions.
30 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
01 Oct 20 Unsettled to active, chance of minor storm conditions.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 36 was issued on 28 September
and is current for interval 29-30 September. Isolated active
periods possible on 29 Sep based on recurrence. There is a chance
for increased activity on 29 Sep and now on 01 Oct due to recent
mass ejection activity.
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Udo

[Peter Kuklok]

Hi,
hier ist noch was dazu. Der letzte Satz hört sich ganz interessant an.

Grüße
Peter

"Subject: Partial Halo CME on 2001/09/28, frontsided

LASCO and EIT observed a partial halo CME on 2001/09/28. The
event was first observed in C2 at 08:42 UT as a bright loop
front over the E limb. By 09:30 UT this front spanned some
180 deg over the S Pole from PA 20 to PA 200. The front first
appeared in C3 at 09:42 UT with maximal coverage of the C3
occultor by 10:20 UT. Note that the C3 images show a faint
emission around the rest of the occulting disk - this is
probably existing coronal material being compressed somewhat
by the shock. This faint emission is also visible in C2
images but only extremely faintly. The plane of sky speed of
the front was measured as 625 km/s at PA 91 (E) with a slight
deceleration through the coronagraphs' fields of view.

The CME was most probably associated with an M3.3 X-ray flare in
AR9636 between 08:10 and 09:10 UT with peak emission at 08:30.
EIT also observed this flare between 08:25 and 09:36, peaking at
18:36. SEC places the flare at N10E18. Both a dimming and an
EIT wave were observed in association with this event. Bright
post-eruption loops are clearly visible from about 10:12 UT.

Images and movies of this event are available at:

ftp://ares.nrl.navy.mil/pub/lasco/halo/20010928

All the movies clearly show a later event, a wide CME in the
SW which is probably associated with a later M2.2 flare from
AR9632 at S17W24. While this CME alone might not normally
merit a partial halo alert, we note that since the locations,
timings and speed of the CMEs are relatively close it is
likely that a certain amount of interacting and/or merging
could occur, possibly increasing the magnitude and complexity
of the earth-directed component."