W E T T E zu 25 / 1502 UT (X 1.3) - sortiert

[Herwig, Rostock]

Hallo,

bitte um Ergänzungen/Korrekturen bei Bedarf.
Wer noch mag, bis 12:00 Uhr ??

WETTE zum X 1.3 vom 25.OKT 2001-1502 UT
---------------------S16W21, Vo SEC: 1091 km/s - 884 nach P.o.S./LASCO

geschätzte Ankunft ACE - UT

27 / 1700-----Jens Wendler
27 / 2012-----Benjamin Kühne
27 / 2100-----Mike Stammler & Stefan Griesing, auch 28 / 1030 - welche ?
27 / 2200-----Sven Lüke
27 / 2335-----Herwig Waldschläger

28 / 0015-----Gunnar Glitscher
28 / 0043-----Hartwig Lüthen
28 / 0100-----Thomas Payer
28 / 0115-----Thomas Sävert
28 / 0230-----Martin Hoerenz
28 / 0510-----Lutz Schenk

RSGA 26.10.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm
levels. The shock arrival from the X1/2b CME on 25/1502 UTC is expected to arrive late on day one
or early on day two of the period. Shock arrival is expected to produce unsettled to minor storm
level activity for day one and two of the period. Major storm levels are possible particularly at the
higher latitudes. Coronal hole / high speed stream may keep activity at unsettled levels on day three.

WATCH spacew. com 26.10.
A major class X1.3/3B solar flare was observed on 25 October from active
sunspot Region 9672. This event was associated with a full halo
(Earthward-directed) coronal mass ejection travelling at an inferred velocity
of near 900 km/sec. This is the second notable coronal mass ejection to be
launched by this active sunspot complex. The first disturbance occurred on
22 October and mildly impacted the Earth on 25 October. It did not produce
any substantial enhancements in auroral activity.
The space environment center is expecting the coronal mass ejection
observed on 25 October to impact the Earth late on 27 October or early on
28 October. Models vary somewhat in their assessment between impacts ranging
from near 11:00 UTC on 27 October to the very early UTC hours of 28 October.

[Mike & Stefan]

wir bleiben ehrlich bei unserer Prgognose, doch bei v= 900 schätzen wir 2810/10:30

Mike