STD Aurora WATCH

[Peter Kuklok]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

ISSUED: 05:00 UTC, 16 APRIL 2002

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VALID BEGINNING AT: 07:00 UTC (3 am EDT) ON 17 APRIL
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (1 pm EDT) ON 19 APRIL

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 17 - 18 APR (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 17 - 19 APR

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 08, 14, 22, 12 (16 APR - 19 APR)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 18 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO MONTANA TO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL

MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK SKY SITES OF NEW YORK

STATE, VERMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO EXTREME NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO EXTREME

NORTHERN GERMANY TO EXTREME NORTHERN POLAND TO NORTHERN LITHUANIA TO

LATVIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT

PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

An Earthward directed coronal mass ejection associated with a minor
long-duration solar flare on 15 April is expected to impact the Earth later
on 17 April (UTC time) and produce periods of enhanced auroral activity that
may at times become visible over fairly widespread middle latitude regions.
Although this disturbance does not appear to be capable of producing
significant auroral storm activity, the potential may exist for periods of
localized strong activity at times during the disturbance. As a result,
observers are encouraged to keep a close eye on conditions. The near new
phase of the moon will provide optimally dark skies for this disturbance.
Additional details may be found at: http://www.spacew.com/astroalert.html

This watch will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC (1 pm EST) on 19 April.
It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

To stay up-to-date, check out the new space weather monitoring software
available at: http://www.spacew.com/swim.

** End of Watch **

[Ulrich Rieth]

...das Fehlen des HCS stark bemerkbar macht.
Von der Symmetrie des CME hätte ich auch auf eine Ap Prognose von 50 und höher getippt.
Mhh, aber wenn Peter schon eine um über 100km/s höhere PoS raus hat, dann könnte es evtl. doch mal ein Fehler in der Prognose sein.
Gruß

Ulrich

[Peter Kuklok]

...sind diese absolut mickrigen Radioemissionen zu diesem Event. Vielleicht auch daher die sehr verhaltenen Prognosen. Bei den Flares vom März waren die Werte ähnlich bescheiden. War das ein Hyder-Flare? Röntgenflusskurve und H-alpha würden ja nicht völlig dagegen sprechen...CME sah dagegen ganz und gar nicht nach einem Filament aus. Bin echt mal gespannt was da auf uns zukommt.

Grüße
Peter

[Ulrich Rieth]

...vielleicht war es wieder so ein kleines Filament, dass sich durch die Sonnenflecken zieht.
Diese gehen ja häufiger im Zusammenhang mit einem Flare hoch und verlängern wohl damit den abfallenden Ast der Röntgenflusskurve.
Ich bin auch richtig gespannt.
Ich glaube nach der mittelfrist Therapie in Finnland bricht das Fieber jetzt wieder aus.....
Gruß

Ulrich