MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING (VALID BEGINNING AT

[Ulrich Rieth]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

ISSUED: 23:50 UTC, 09 NOVEMBER 2002

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*** POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS ***

For North Americans, begin watching the evening of 10 November.

VALID BEGINNING AT: 21:00 UTC ON 10 NOVEMBER (4 PM EST)
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (2 PM EST) ON 12 NOVEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 07 NOVEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 07 - 08 NOVEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 23, 40, 25, 12 (10 NOV - 13 NOV)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

OREGON TO EXTREME NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO IOWA TO

ILLINOIS TO INDIANA TO OHIO TO WEST VIRGINIA TO NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND

MARYLAND.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN FRANCE TO BELGIUM TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO CENTRAL POLAND TO

NORTHERN BELARUS TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA. ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED

FROM NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA.

SYNOPSIS...

A strong solar coronal mass ejection associated with a near-major class
M4.6/2B x-ray proton flare from sunspot complex number 180 was observed at
13:23 UTC on 09 November (8:23 am EST). This high velocity coronal mass
ejection is estimated to be travelling near 1,800 km/sec. Although a strong
component of the CME is directed away from the Earth, a moderate
Earthward-directed component also exists. This disturbance is expected to
merge with a coronal hole based solar wind disturbance and could impact the
Earth early in the UTC day of 11 November (evening hours of 10 November
[Sunday night] for North Americans).

The Space Environment Center and the USAF are expecting the disturbance
to impact late in the UTC day of 11 November and produce only a mild
enhancement of activity (if their prediction holds true, no auroral activity
would be observed over North American middle latitudes at all - and high
latitudes wouldn't expect to see anything until the evening of 11 November
[Monday night]).

We (STD) believe the disturbance will impact much earlier than the
SEC/USAF estimate. Our estimate is for impact during the early UTC day of 11
November (perhaps around 05:00 UTC [near midnight on the evening of 10
November EST], +/- several hours). We also suggest this disturbance could
produce a moderately strong impact at the Earth. We expect periods of minor
to major geomagnetic and auroral storm activity to accompany this
disturbance. There is a fair chance middle latitudes may spot periods of
moderate to strong auroral activity during the UTC days of 11 and 12 November
(North American evenings of 10 and 11 November).

This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 12 November. It
will then be downgraded to a watch through 19:00 UTC on 13 November
afterwhich it will probably be allowed to expire. If the disturbance proves
to be less geoeffective than anticipated, it may be downgraded earlier than
this.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

CURRENT REPORTED SIGHTINGS OF ACTIVITY MAY BE FOUND AT:

http://www.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

CURRENT GALLERY OF ASTRONOMICAL AND AURORA IMAGES:

http://www.spacew.com/gallery

DISCUSSIONS OF ACTIVITY

http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

** End of Warning **

[Heiko]

leider werden weite Teile in D "bescheidenes" Wetter haben .... *o.T.*

[Peter Kuklok]

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POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING

ISSUED: 23:50 UTC, 09 NOVEMBER 2002

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(See Appended Comments for Synoptic Information)

VALID BEGINNING AT: 21:00 UTC 10 NOV

VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC 13 NOV

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 11 - 12 NOV (UTC days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 10 - 13 NOV

POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MINOR

POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MINOR - MAJOR

POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM: APPROX 18 TO 36 HOURS

DURATION OF MAIN BELT OF ACTIVITY: 12 TO 18 HOURS

POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 6

POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 7

EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX: 5

EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX: 5 - 6

POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: LOW

POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MINOR

EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: GOOD TO FAIR

POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: MODERATE

POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MINOR

EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: FAIR TO POOR

POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: HIGH

POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MAJOR TO SEVERE

EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: VERY POOR TO RADIO BLACKOUT

POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS: 65%

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EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC IMPACT
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SEVERE STORM : 15 % LOW LATITUDES : MINOR

MAJOR STORM : 30 % MIDDLE LATITUDES : MINOR

MINOR STORM : 35 % HIGH LATITUDES : MAJOR - SEVERE

ACTIVE OR LESS : 20 % POLAR LATITUDES : MAJOR - SEVERE
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PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 80% ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MINOR - MAJOR

ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM: 40

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COMMENTS:

Coronal mass ejection plane of sky velocity estimated near 1,800 km/sec.
Energetic proton event in-progress may temporarily disable ACE spacecraft
data.

We expect impact near 05:00 UTC on 11 November (+/- several hours) with a
potentially strong geoeffective impact. SEC/USAF predicts impact late in UTC
day of 11 November with only minor enhancements in geomagnetic activity (no
storm conditions are mentioned at all).

** End of Warning **

[Thomas Sävert]

nicht nur wegen des Wetters. Wenn ich mir die Animation des Flares so anschaue, dann wird das eher ein Streifschuss, der uns bei nordwärts gerichtetem IMF wenig bringen dürfte. Das ist meine kleine "Euphoriebremse" dazu.

Gruß, Thomas Sävert