MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

[Peter Kuklok]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 19:20 UTC, 20 NOVEMBER 2002

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (2 pm EST) ON 21 NOVEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 20 - 21 NOV (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 20 - 21 NOV

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 25, 20, 20, 15 (20 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 6 - 12 HOURS (SEE WARNING)

MINOR BELT = 12 - 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN OREGON TO IDAHO TO NORTHERN WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN

MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK SKY SITES OF NEW YORK STATE TO

NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN TO CENTRAL UNITED KINGDOM TO THE NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO NORTHERN

GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND TO LITHUANIA TO LATVIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA MAY

ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

A coronal mass ejection impacted the ACE spacecraft near 10:21 UTC on 20
November. This disturbance has produced a strong southward rotation of the
interplanetary magnetic field and is resulting in periods of minor to major
geomagnetic and auroral substorm conditions over the high and upper middle
latitude regions. European regions may be able to spot periods of activity
over the next several hours while these favorable conditions exist. North
American observers will be at the mercy of the IMF, which may (or may not)
remain southward long enough to keep substorming active until darkness falls.
In any event, strong interference from the brightness of the moon will
inhibit middle latitude observations of auroral storm activity. Nevertheless,
middle latitude observations of activity will be possible over the next 6 to
12 hours (with a chance of minor lingering activity thereafter).

This watch will remain valid through 19:00 UTC (2 pm EST) on
21 November. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

** End of Watch **