Partial Halo CME Alert - vom STD herausgegeben

[Heiko]

Event #37 - 28 January 2003
Issued: 11:20 UTC, 28 January 2003

SOURCE EVENT

Class C2.4 flare and DSF near S17 W23 at 21:53 UTC on 27 January
Type II: None observed
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: near 1000 km/sec (SW)

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 00:00 UTC on 30 January to 06:00 UTC on 31 January
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 15:00 UTC, 30 January 2003
Estimated Shock Strength (0: Weakest, 9=Strongest): 4

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
SOUTHWARD

EVENT #37 NOTES:

A partial halo coronal mass ejection associated with a class C2.4 x-ray flare and a disappearing north-south oriented filament may produce an Earth-bound impact on 30 January. This is not expected to be a strong disturbance. Although an initial southward turning may be associated with this disturbance, the dominant IMF direction after the disturbance arrives is expected to be mixed north-south. As a result, the magnetospheric response may could be fairly minor with unsettled to active intervals dominating and brief minor storming possible over higher latitudes.
These predictions may be based on preliminary data and may be revised without warning. The predictions should not be used as a definitive indication of CME impact times or strengths and may frequently be in error. The proprietary methods used to estimate shock impact times are under continual development. Caution is advised.

[Heiko]

Wettervorhersage - Schnee, Schnee, Schnee - da muss es PL geben ... *o.T.*

[Peter Wloch]

Hallo Heiko,
Fuer den Donnerstagnachmittag sind steigende Aufheiterungen angesagt
und warscheins gute Sicht, aber kalt, in der Nacht.
Lassen wir uns ueberraschen.
Fraglich ist, ob die Intensivitaet des PL fuer D, speziell fuer Sueddeutschland reicht, das ist wohl das groessere Problem ...

Gruss
Peter

[Peter Kuklok]

Halo CME Mail
Date: Tue, 28 Jan 2003 15:36

From: Gareth Lawrence

Subject: Partial Halo CME on 2003/01/27, frontsided

LASCO and EIT observed a partial halo CME on 2003/01/27. The
event was first observed in C2 at 22:23 UT as a bright loop
front over the S pole; by 23:33 UT the front spanned 148 deg
from PA 127 - 275, with possible extremely faint extensions
into the NW and NE. The front first appeared in C3 at 22:54 UT
with maximal coverage of the C3 occultor by 00:54 UT. The mean
plane-of-sky speed for this event was 1049 km/s at PA 193,
with a highly linear height-time profile. Please note that
as a result of the special campaign to observe comet C/2002 X5
(Kudo-Fujikawa) the start times are somewhat inaccurate.

The CME was probably most associated with a prominence eruption
observed by EIT between 22:33 - 23:33 UT centered around S22W22.
SEC records a C2.4 X-ray event at S17W23 (near AR 100267) between
21:42 - 22:59 UT with peak emission at 22:19 UT; the EIT images
suggest this is due to bright post-eruptive loops. An EIT
dimming was possibly observed in association with this event,
but no wave. Note that the EIT cadence was highly irregular
around this time due to LASCO's comet observations; as a
result some phenomena and their onset times are hard to identify.

Quelle: http://lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil/cgi-bin/halocme_parse

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EPAM bisher ohne jegliches Anzeichen einer evtl. nahenden Schockfront.

Grüße
Peter