STD - CME Impact Prediction

[Peter Kuklok]

Event #43 - 15 June 2003
Issued: 07:50 UTC, 17 June 2003

SOURCE EVENT

Class X1.3/SF flare near S06 E83 at 23:57 UTC on 15 May 2003
Type II: 551 km/sec
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: 2000 km/sec (E)

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 16:00 UTC on 17 June to 12:00 UTC on 18 June
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 03:00 UTC, 18 June 2003
Estimated Shock Strength (0: Weakest, 9=Strongest): 5

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
SOUTHWARD

EVENT #43 NOTES:

The geoeffectiveness of this disturbance is a fairly large unknown. It is believed it will not be particularly geoeffective. The Earth should cross only the flanking region of the CME and therefore probably will not observe very harsh conditions. Nevertheless, the potential exists for periods of moderately strong geomagnetic and auroral storm activity after the disturbance arrives.
These predictions may be based on preliminary data and may be revised without warning. The predictions should not be used as a definitive indication of CME impact times or strengths and may frequently be in error. The proprietary methods used to estimate shock impact times are under continual development. Caution is advised.

[Peter Kuklok]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 06:00 UTC, 17 JUNE 2003

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** CORRECTION **
The last watch contained an error in the text. The date this watch will be
updated or allowed to expire is 23:00 UTC on 20 June, not 04 June.

VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 20 JUNE

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 18 - 20 JUNE (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 17 - 20 JUNE

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 25, 30, 30, 25 (17 JUNE - 20 JUNE)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: LOW - MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = VARIABLE

MINOR BELT = 3 TO 4 DAYS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND PRIOR TO LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: BECOMING MODERATE TO STRONG AFTER MOONRISE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN WASHINGTON

TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN

WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TO MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

EXTREME NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO NORTHERN DENMARK AND POSSIBLY EXTREME

NORTHERN GERMANY TO SOUTHERN SWIDEN TO SOUTHERN FINLAND AND POSSIBLY

LATVIA AND ESTONIA TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA.

NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTHEASTERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA ALSO HAVE A FAIR CHANCE

TO OBSERVE PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

Effects of a well-placed solar coronal hole as well as possible modest
effects from the X-class flare of 15 June (which has now been confirmed to
have been associated with a full-halo and probable weakly Earthward-directed
coronal mass ejection) could produce periods of auroral storm activity over
the high latitude regions during the next several days. CME effects will be
possible on 18 and 19 June. Coronal hole affects may also begin to be
observed around this time. There is a fair chance some dark-sky middle
latitude locations may spot periods of auroral activity over the next few
days.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
20 June. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

NOTICE: THE NEXT HOME-STUDY INTERNET SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING COURSE

commenced on 16 June 2003. We are accepting late enrollments through 22

June 2003. Enrollments not received or post-marked on or prior to this

date will be refused.

Details are available at: http://www.spacew.com/www/course.html

** End of Watch **

[Ulrich Rieth]

...wundert mich, dass sich die Jungs soweit aus dem Fenster lehnen. Sonst sind die doch eher zurückhaltend mit den Warnungen.
Gruß

Ulrich

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BBSO Solar Activity Warning 16-JUN-2003 18:05:59 UT

NOAA 0386, S06E83 (Solar X= -932", Solar Y= -101") at 06/16/11:00UT has rotated around the east limb and maybe the return of NOAA 0365. The region is to close too the east limb to ascertain its full magnetic complexity. Region produced a X1.3 at 2356UT yesterday. C-class and M-class events with a chance for another X-class.
RF