STD: POTENTIAL MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WARNING

[Peter Kuklok]

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POTENTIAL MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WARNING

ISSUED: 01:10 UTC, 20 JULY 2003

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SYNOPSIS:

Regions 410 and 412 have experienced rapid growth over the last 24 to 48
hours. Both regions have considerable magnetic complexity which is continuing
to develop and evolve with time. Region 412 has a confirmed delta
configuration in its trailing spots, while Region 410 has developed a wedge
of opposite polarity magnetic flux impinging within the trailing region of
the spot complex. Temperatures have increased and the potential for at least
minor M-class acivity is present. Region 409 is located just east of Region
412 (near the central meridian at N15W08) and contains what appears to be a
fairly stable sigmoid structure. Any of these regions may be capable of
producing isolated minor M-class flares.

Regions 410 and 412 also appear to be good candidates for an isolated
major solar flare over the next 3 to 5 days. The structure of the corona
above these active regions appears to be optimal for the generation of
flare-associated coronal mass ejections, which at the present time would
likely become Earthward directed should they occur. This includes Region 409,
whose apparent sigmoid structure may be susceptible to eruption.

Also of note is the rapid formation of another spot group just to the
southwest of Region 410. This activity is combining to push the background
x-ray flux to near C-class levels.

** End of Warning **

[Heiko]

momentan nimmt 410 so langsam Anlauf ...... *o.T.*