MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

[Ulrich Rieth]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 05:20 UTC, 06 AUGUST 2003

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 08 AUGUST

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 06 - 07 AUGUST (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 06 - 08 AUGUST

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 25, 35, 23, 18 (06 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 TO 48 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 48 TO 72 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW TO MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN

MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEW YORK STATE TO NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

IRELAND TO UNITED KINGDOM TO NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO

SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO LATVIA TO ESTONIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTH EASTERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE

PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

A fairly strong auroral substorm early this UTC day (06 August) has
produced a period of visible auroral activity over some middle latitude
regions. Additional episodes of activity are possible over the next 24 to 72
hours as effects of a well placed solar coronal hole begin to be observed.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
08 August. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

** End of Watch **

[lutz schenk]

Da steht doch irgendwie nix Halbes und nix Ganzes drin.

OK, es WAR ein Substorm, aber irgendwie ist von dem CH noch nix zu sehen, und das was da war kann irgendwie auch nicht mit dem CH zusammen hängen.

> SYNOPSIS...

> A fairly strong auroral substorm early this UTC day (06 August)
> has
> produced a period of visible auroral activity over some middle
> latitude
> regions. Additional episodes of activity are possible over the
> next 24 to 72
> hours as effects of a well placed solar coronal hole begin to be
> observed.

Na ja, mal sehen...

Gruß Lutz