MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

[Thomas Sävert]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

ISSUED: 04:20 UTC, 25 SEPTEMBER 2001

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*** POTENTIAL FOR HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS ***

VALID BEGINNING AT: 15:00 UTC 25 SEPTEMBER
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 28 SEPTEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 25 - 26 SEPTEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 25 - 28 SEPTEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 100, 40, 12 (25 - 28 SEPTEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 36 TO 48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE, BECOMING NIL AFTER MOONSET NR MIDNIGHT

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD TO VERY GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO ARIZONA TO NEW MEXICO TO TEXAS TO LOUISIANA

TO MISSISSIPPI TO ALABAMA TO GEORGIA AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN REGIONS OF

FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

EXTREME NORTHERN MOROCCO TO EXTREME NORTHERN ALGERIA TO NORTHERN TUNISIA

TO SOUTHERN ITALY TO GREECE TO EXTREME NORTHERN TURKEY TO GEORGIA TO

NORTHERN AZERBAIJAN TO SOUTHWESTERN KAZAKSTAN TO NORTHERN UZBEKISTAN TO

CENTRAL KAZAKSTAN TO EAST-CENTRAL KAZAKSTAN TO EXTREME NORTHERN MONGOLIA

TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CHINA TO CENTRAL SAKHALIN. THERE IS A SMALL

POSSIBILITY EXTREME NORTHERN JAPAN MAY WITNESS ACTIVITY.

IN AUSTRALIA, ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY *SOUTH* OF A LIHE

FROM NORTHERN NEW SOUTH WALES TO NORTHERN SOUTH AUSTRALIA TO CENTRAL

WESTERN AUSTRALIA.

ALL OF NEW ZEALAND HAS MAY OBSERVE ACTIVITY.

IN SOUTH AFRICA, THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF SOUTH AFRICA (NEAR CAPE TOWN

AND PORT ELIZABETH) *MAY* OBSERVE SOME ACTIVITY DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE

STORM, IF PREDICTIONS HOLD TRUE.

IN SOUTH AMERICA, SOUTHERN REGIONS OF CHILE AND ARGENTINA *MAY* SPOT

PERIODS OF ACTIVITY SOUTH OF A LINE OF ROUGHLY 50 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE.

THE FALKLAND ISLANDS MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

A strong solar flare and high velocity Earthward directed coronal mass
ejection were observed at 10:38 UTC (6:38 am EDT) on 24 September. The
coronal mass ejection is expected to impact the Earth near 18:00 UTC (2 pm
EDT) on 25 September, give or take several hours.

The arrival of this disturbance is expected to produce periods of major
to severe geomagnetic and auroral storm activity. This disturbance has the
potential to be one of the largest observed this solar cycle. Observations
well into the low latitude regions may be possible if predictions hold true.

Observations will be best after local midnight in the northern
hemisphere when the moon sets (or after about 3 am in Australia/New Zealand).

Forecasters suggest this disturbance has the potential to last as long
as perhaps 48 hours. As a result, most middle latitude regions of the world
should have at least one chance to observe activity. Whether this holds true
remains to be seen. Forecasts of storm durations are an inexact science.

This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 28 September. It
will then be updated or allowed to expire.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

* OR *

Use the STD AURORA MONITOR Software to monitor conditions and

report sightings. It is available at:

http://www.spacew.com/aurora

For Real-Time News and Discussions with Experienced Aurora Enthusiasts:

http://www.spacew.com/irc

and join the #aurora channel (type /join #aurora)

WE HAVE A USEFUL DISCUSSION FORUM FOR AURORA ENTHUSIASTS AVAILABLE AT:

http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

** End of Warning **

[Thomas Sävert]

oT

[Peter Kuklok]

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POTENTIAL MAJOR/SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING

ISSUED: 04:25 UTC, 25 SEPTEMBER 2001

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(See Appended Comments for Synoptic Information)

VALID BEGINNING AT: 15:00 UTC 25 SEP

VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC 28 SEP

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 27 - 28 SEP (UTC days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 27 - 29 SEP

POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MAJOR - SEVERE

POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MAJOR - SEVERE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM: APPROX 48 HOURS

DURATION OF MAIN BELT OF ACTIVITY: 24 TO 36 HOURS

POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 8-9

POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 9

EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX: 7 - 8

EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX: 7 - 8

POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: MODERATE

POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MINOR

EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: FAIR TO GOOD

POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: HIGH

POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MAJOR TO SEVERE

EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: POOR TO FREQUENTLY USELESS

POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: HIGH

POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: SEVERE

EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: RADIO BLACKOUT CONDITIONS

POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS: 80%

SUSPECTED SOURCE OF OBSERVED/EXPECTED ACTIVITY:

A full halo high velocity coronal mass ejection associated with an
energetic major class X2.6 solar proton flare on 24 September.

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EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC IMPACT
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SEVERE STORM : 40 % LOW LATITUDES : MINOR

MAJOR STORM : 40 % MIDDLE LATITUDES : MAJOR-SEVERE

MINOR STORM : 20 % HIGH LATITUDES : SEVERE

ACTIVE OR LESS : 0 % POLAR LATITUDES : SEVERE
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PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 90% ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MAJOR - SEVERE

ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM: 110

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COMMENTS:

Periods of major to severe geomagnetic storming may be observed during
this disturbance.

** End of Warning **

[Ulrich Rieth (z.Z. Würzburg)]

...und ich gehe soweit und sage, dass es 150 - 200 werden und vor allem, dass der M7.6 die Dauer auf bis zu 72 oder gar 96 Stunden, wenn noch was kommt, verlängern werden !!!
Gruß

Ulrich, in der Hoffnung, auch noch was fotografieren zu können