Suche alte WATCH´s und WARNING´s vom STD

[Ulrich Rieth]

Hallo !

Leider hat das STD alles archiviert, nur die Warnungen und Watches nicht.
Daher die Frage, hat von Euch jemand die entsprechenden Texte von folgenden Ereignissen ?
06.April 2000
06.November 2000
31.März 2001
11.April 2001
Falls jemand diese Texte hat, kann er sie mir bitte zumailen ?
Danke !
Gruß

Ulrich

[Peter Kuklok]

Hi Ulrich,
6.4.2000 hab ich auch nicht.

Grüße
Peter

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

ISSUED: 16:50 UTC, 06 NOVEMBER 2000

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 07 NOVEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 06 NOVEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 06 - 07 NOVEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 45, 15, 12, 12 (06 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 6 TO 12 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR & AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE, BECOMING NIL AFTER MOONSET NEAR 1 AM

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD TO FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO NORTHERN MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA TO MINNESOTA

TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN / MICHIGAN TO SOUTHERN CANADA AND POSSIBLY SOME DARK

SKY SITES OF THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN U.S.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

SOUTHERN U.K. (AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN REGIONS OF FRANCE) TO BELGIUM

TO SOUTHERN NETHERLANDS TO THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF GERMANY TO NORTHERN

POLAND TO LITHUANIA AND NORTHERN PARTS OF BELARUS TO NORTHERN RUSSIA

(ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM VELIKIYE LUKI TO TVER TO VOLOGDA TO

SYKTYVKAR AND POINTS NORTHEASTWARD). SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND AND

NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA MAY OBSERVE SOMETHING PRIOR TO SUNRISE, BUT ARE NOT

EXPECTED TO OBSERVE ANY ACTIVITY THEREAFTER.

SYNOPSIS...

A moderately vigorous interplanetary disturbance (thought to be related
to a recent full halo coronal mass ejection) impacted the ACE spacecraft near
09:15 UTC on 06 November. Over the last few hours, conditions have become
increasingly favorable for periods of potentially strong auroral storming.
The most favorable regions to observe activity are expected to be the
northern European regions. Activity will probably be on the decline by the
time North America and New Zealand/Australia re-enters darkness.

Lunar interference will be moderately strong until after the moon sets
(near 1 am local time). Thereafter, optimal dark sky conditions should exist
for many favorably located northern European regions.

Observers interested in monitoring auroral activity conditions and being
alerted in real-time to potential visible levels of auroral activity are
encouraged to investigate the software available at:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora

This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 07 November. It
will then be updated or allowed to expire. For more up-to-date information,
please consult the Forecast Notes available at:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forumnotes.html

WE HAVE A DISCUSSION FORUM FOR AURORA ENTHUSIASTS AVAILABLE AT:

http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

* OR *

Use the STD AURORA MONITOR Software to report sightings,

available at: http://www.spacew.com/aurora

** End of Warning **

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

ISSUED: 23:05 UTC, 29 MARCH 2001

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

*** POTENTIAL FOR HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS ***

VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC ON 30 MARCH
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 01 APRIL

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 30 - 31 MARCH (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 50, 50, 20, 15 (30 MARCH - 02 APRIL)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 TO 48 HOURS (MULTIPLE)

MINOR BELT = 48 TO 72 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NIL TO LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

OREGON (POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA) TO NORTHERN UTAH TO NORTHERN

COLORADO TO NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN MISSOURI TO ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN KENTUCKY

TO VIRGINIA TO MARYLAND.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

FRANCE TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO CENTRAL POLAND TO BELARUS TO NORTHERN RUSSIA

(APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KALUGA TO JUST SOUTH OF MOSCOW TO

DZERZHINSK TO KIROV, ETC). NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA

SHOULD ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO STRONG ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

Two (possibly three, but probably two) potentially influential coronal
mass ejections are currently enroute to the Earth. The first disturbance is
expected to impact the Earth sometime between 06:00 and 12:00 UTC on 30
March. The second is expected to impact late on 30 March or early on 31 March
(UTC days). The first disturbance should result in periods of moderate to
strong auroral storming over the high and many middle latitude regions. The
second disturbance is expected to produce periods of potentially stronger
auroral activity on 31 March and possibly into 01 April. This is a WARNING of
potentially strong auroral activity, not a watch. Confidence levels are
relatively high that periods of moderate to strong activity will occur over
the high and many dark-sky middle latitude regions.

Additional Earth-directed coronal mass ejections are possible (even
expected) over the next several days as the active sunspot region 9393
continues to look very favorable for producing additional major energetic
events.

This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 01 April. It
will then be updated or allowed to expire.

A New IRC Network Service is Available at:

http://www.spacew.com/irc

for those interested in monitoring discussions

and activity in real-time.

THERE IS A DISCUSSION FORUM FOR AURORA ENTHUSIASTS AVAILABLE AT:

http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

* OR *

Use the STD AURORA MONITOR Software to monitor conditions and

report sightings. It is available at:

http://www.spacew.com/aurora

** End of AstroAlert **

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

UPDATED: 11:45 UTC, 10 APRIL 2001

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/

*** POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS ***

MAJOR X2.2/3B SOLAR FLARE AND CME PROMPTS ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST

VALID BEGINNING AT: 21:00 UTC ON 10 APRIL
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 13 APRIL

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 11 - 12 APRIL (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 11 - 13 APRIL

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 12, 60, 50, 15 (10 APRIL - 13 APRIL)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: PRIOR TO AND NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT, HIGH AFTER MOONRISE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN TO POSSIBLY CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO NEVADA TO NORTHERN ARIZONA TO

NEW MEXICO TO NORTHERN TEXAS TO OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO

MISSISSIPPI TO ALABAMA TO GEORGIA TO SOUTH CAROLINA (*IF* AND *ONLY IF*

FAVORABLE SOLAR WIND CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER NORTH AMERICA PRIOR TO

MOONRISE). A MORE REALISTIC EXPECTATION MAY BE A LINE ROUGHLY NORTH OF

OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO SOUTHERN WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO IOWA TO

ILLINOIS TO INDIANA TO KENTUCKY TO WEST VERGINIA TO CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN SPAIN TO SOUTHERN FRANCE TO NORTHERN ITALY TO SLOVENIA TO

NORTHERN CROATIA TO NORTHERN YUGOSLAVIA TO ROMANIA TO SOUTHERN UKRAINE TO

SOUTH-WESTERN RUSSIA APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM VORONEZH TO

SARANSK TO KAZAN TO PERM AND EAST-CENTRAL RUSSIA (*IF* AND *ONLY IF*

FAVORABLE SOLAR WIND CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER EUROPE AND RUSSIA PRIOR TO

MOONRISE). A MORE REALISTIC EXPECTATION MAY BE A LINE ROUGHLY NORTH OF

NORTHERN FRANCE TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL POLAND TO SOUTHERN

BELARUS TO SOUTH OF MOSCOW TO KIROV TO OTHER NORTHERN TO NORTH-CENTRAL

RUSSIAN REGIONS.

SYNOPSIS...

Addendum:

A major class X2.2/3B solar flare was observed at 05:27 UTC on 10

April. Although there was no complementary SOHO data to analyze

at the time of this addendum, observed features suggest this event

may have been associated with a halo CME travelling at a velocity

up to perhaps twice the velocity of the CME observed on 09 April. If

this holds true, a major to severe auroral storm may develop during

the mid to late UTC hours of 11 April following the arrival of this

second major disturbance (sometime near or after 06:00 to 15:00 UTC on

11 April, or 2 am to 11 am EDT on 11 April). These are preliminary

times and may be adjusted when more data becomes available. Major to

severe auroral storming is still contingent upon favorable solar wind

conditions behind the shock front of the disturbance as well as

observing the intense phase of activity prior to moonrise.

In addition to the above, a heavily Earth-directed and fairly high
velocity coronal mass ejection was observed erupting from the Sun in
association with a major class M7.9 solar x-ray flare at 15:34 UTC on 09
April.

Impact of this disturbance is expected to occur sometime during the
early UTC day of 11 April followed some hours later by the potentially larger
impact of the X-class flare associated CME.

Observers are encouraged to watch the skies during the nights of 11 and
12 April for possible activity. Moonrise occurs near local midnight over most
regions on these dates. As a result, optimal observing conditions will occur
after the sun sets and before the moon rises. The near-full phase of the
rising moon will heavily drown out the fainter signatures of auroral
activity.

Additional Earth-directed coronal mass ejections are possible over the
next several days.

This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 13 April. It
will then be updated or allowed to expire.

For Real-Time News and Discussions with Experienced Aurora Photographers:

http://www.spacew.com/irc

and join the #aurora channel (type /join #aurora)

WE HAVE A DISCUSSION FORUM FOR AURORA ENTHUSIASTS AVAILABLE AT:

http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

* OR *

Use the STD AURORA MONITOR Software to monitor conditions and

report sightings. It is available at:

http://www.spacew.com/aurora

A Special Space Weather Prediction Class has been Scheduled for

27 April. Those interested in taking this class should visit:

http://www.spacew.com/www/course.html

** End of AstroAlert **

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

> Hallo !

> Leider hat das STD alles archiviert, nur die Warnungen und
> Watches nicht.
> Daher die Frage, hat von Euch jemand die entsprechenden Texte
> von folgenden Ereignissen ?
> 06.April 2000
> 06.November 2000
> 31.März 2001
> 11.April 2001
> Falls jemand diese Texte hat, kann er sie mir bitte zumailen ?
> Danke !
> Gruß

> Ulrich

[Ulrich Rieth]

Danke ! *o.T.*

[Peter Kuklok]

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
ISSUED: 17:35 UTC, 06 APRIL

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 07 APRIL

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 06 APR (UTC days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 06 - 09 APR

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 50, 20, 25, 15 (06 APR - 09 APR)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 18 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF SOUTHERN UTAH TO
SOUTHERN WYOMING AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN REGIONS OF NEBRASKA TO
IOWA TO CENTRAL REGIONS OF ILLINOIS, INDIANA AND OHIO TO SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW JERSEY.

ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

SOUTHERN UNITED KINGDOM AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN COASTAL REGIONS OF
FRANCE TO THE NETHERLANDS TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND TO
LITHUANIA TO SOUTHERN BELARUS TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND
AND SOUTHEAST AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

RECEIVE REAL-TIME AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCHES AND WARNINGS BASED ON REAL-TIME
SOLAR WIND CONDITIONS USING THE SOFTWARE AT:

http://solar.spacew.com/swarm

SYNOPSIS...

A very vigorous interplanetary disturbance impacted the Earth near
16:04 UTC on 06 April. Although we are still in the initial phase of this
disturbance, it appears conditions may be setting up nicely for the
generation of a minor to major auroral storm. Widespread observations of
auroral activity throughout northern Europe and the U.K. may be possible.
There is also a good chance periods of activity may become visible throughout
many middle latitude regions of the night-sectors of North America.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

ESTIMATED AURORAL VISIBILITY FROM THE GROUND, AS WELL AS SPACECRAFT
AURORAL IMAGERY AND STATISTICAL PLOTS OF ANTICIPATED ACTIVITY CAN BE
FOUND AT:

http://www.spacew.com/www/aurora.html

** End of Warning **

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

[Ulrich Rieth]

Gab ja Null Vorwarnzeit...hatte sie auch gerade gefunden *o.T.*

[Peter Kuklok]

Der ACE-Plot vom 06.04.2000:
Über 6 Stunden fast ununterbrochen ein extrem südliches IMF. Speed um die 600km/s...da muss ja der Himmel brennen

Grüße
Peter