Neue Ankunftszeit Rechnungen des STD...

[Ulrich Rieth]

...besagen, dass der Schock heute zwischen 10 und 16 UTC am ACE ankommen sollte !!!
Also liegen wir mal wieder in der "Todeszone"
Gruß

Ulrich

[Mike]

dann doch hohe Anfangs v ? SEC sagt "nur" 1043....... *o.T.*

[Bernd]

Komisch, Protonen müßten schon längst steigen *o.T.*

[Günther Strauch]

was bedeutet Todeszone *o.T.*

[Ulrich Rieth]

....ich meinte damit, dass wir im Bereich des Sturms sitzen...und nicht, wie so oft zuvor die Amis....sorry, wenn das etwas blöd rüber kam.
Gruß

Ulrich

[Ulrich Rieth]

http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/EPAM_7d.html

Da sieht man, dass wir immer noch auf einem hohen Level sind und daher den ersten Anstieg nicht sehen können.
Die Vorlaufzeit würde ich mit etwa 2 Stunden ansetzen.
Gruß

Ulrich

[Ulrich Rieth]

> Btw, my bet for shock impact at ACE (in a just for fun game of our German
> forum) is 16:30 UTC.
> But after looking at the CME more closely, especially with the high p.o.s.
> speed (1304km/s), even 16:30 UTC seems a bit to late for me.
> Now I would give him (?) an arrival time of about 14:00 UTC.
> Anyway, time will tell....very soon.

Yes, time will tell. You're probably right in the ball park. It's a tough
'game' to play. Not even the best magnetohydrodynamic models can accurately
predict shock arrivals (as you know). There's still probably something to be
said for 'luck'.

Our guestimate changed to 10:00 UTC, although that's probably early. Hence
our larger error-bar on the + side (+10 hours, -6 hours).

[Ulrich Rieth]

> Btw, your cautions point of view seems to be weakening, because all of
> the recent watches where extended down to a line including northern
> Germany. I think a year ago they would all have been much more to the
> north. Seems like our network is resulting in a better estimation of
> chances

The observation network is indeed providing a better indication of
visibility limits and hence is affecting the products we issue. You know,
you can use as much theory as you want to set limits on visibility, but
until you get real people out there, it's not possible to determine the true
limits. All of you across the big pond there have been invaluable in helping
to better establish visibility limits given the local light pollution issues
that exist in Europe. I think many are realizing that the so-called 'Kp
visibility maps' don't really all of the time.