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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
ISSUED: 06:20 UTC, 05 NOVEMBER 2001
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*** POTENTIAL FOR HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS ***
VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC ON 06 NOVEMBER (7 pm EST on 05 November)
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 07 NOVEMBER
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 06 NOVEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 05 - 07 NOVEMBER
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 12, 50, 20, 12 (05 - 08 NOVEMBER)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE - HIGH
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
SOUTHERN OREGON TO NORTHERN UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO NORTHERN KANSAS
TO MISSOURI TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
SOUTHERN FRANCE TO NORTHERN ITALY TO SLOVENIA TO HUNGARY TO NORTHERN
ROMANIA TO NORTHERN MOLDOVA TO UKRAINE TO CENTRAL RUSSIA. MOST OF NEW
ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS
OF ACTIVITY. THERE IS ALSO A *SLIGHT* CHANCE EXTREME SOUTHERN REGIONS OF
CHILE AND ARGENTINA MAY SPOT BRIEF PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.
SYNOPSIS...
Auroral activity is expected to intensify to storm levels following the
anticipated arrival of a potentially strong coronal mass ejection early in
the UTC day of 06 November (evening hours of 05 November over North America).
The disturbance is expected to last approximately 18 to 24 hours. The moon is
roughly 70% illuminated during this period of time and will therefore prove
to be somewhat of a hinderance to observing activity once it rises higher in
the sky. Nevertheless, activity could become intense enough at times to
override the influence of the moon.
This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 07 November. It
will then be updated or allowed to expire.
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html
Other Tools:
o Monitor real-time conditions and report sightings using software at:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora
o On-line global discussion forum:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html
o Chat in real-time with others using IRC at:
http://www.spacew.com/irc
and join the #aurora channel (type /join #aurora in the IRC software).
o Real-time notification of events via Digital SMS:
http://www.spacew.com/sms
** End of Warning **
MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
-
Thomas Sävert
Polarlichter bis Italien möglich! *oT*
Polarlichter bis Italien möglich! *oT*
-
Peter Kuklok
+ POT. MAJOR/SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING
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POTENTIAL MAJOR/SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING
ISSUED: 06:30 UTC, 05 NOVEMBER 2001
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(See Appended Comments for Synoptic Information)
VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC 06 NOV
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC 07 NOV
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 06 NOV (UTC days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 05 - 07 NOV
POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MAJOR
POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MAJOR - SEVERE
POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM: APPROX 24 HOURS
DURATION OF MAIN BELT OF ACTIVITY: 12 TO 18 HOURS
POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 8
POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 9
EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX: 6
EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX: 6 - 7
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: MODERATE
POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MINOR
EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: HIGH
POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MAJOR
EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: FAIR TO VERY POOR
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: HIGH
POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: SEVERE
EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: RADIO BLACKOUT TO VERY POOR
POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS: 80%
SUSPECTED SOURCE OF OBSERVED/EXPECTED ACTIVITY:
A major X-class solar flare and associated Earth-directed coronal mass
ejection observed on 04 November.
--------------------------------- ---------------------------------
EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC IMPACT
--------------------------------- ---------------------------------
SEVERE STORM : 40 % LOW LATITUDES : MINOR
MAJOR STORM : 40 % MIDDLE LATITUDES : MAJOR
MINOR STORM : 20 % HIGH LATITUDES : SEVERE-MAJOR
ACTIVE OR LESS : 0 % POLAR LATITUDES : SEVERE-MAJOR
--------------------------------- ---------------------------------
PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 65% ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MAJOR
ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM: 60
---- ---------------
COMMENTS:
Impact expected near 06:00 UTC on 06 November, give or take up to 8 hours.
Impact is expected to be associated with a fairly strong sudden magnetic
impulse.
** End of Warning **
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> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
> MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
> ISSUED: 06:20 UTC, 05 NOVEMBER 2001
> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
> *** POTENTIAL FOR HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS ***
> VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC ON 06 NOVEMBER (7 pm EST on 05
> November)
> VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 07 NOVEMBER
> HIGH RISK PERIOD: 06 NOVEMBER (UTC DAYS)
> MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 05 - 07 NOVEMBER
> PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 12, 50, 20, 12 (05 - 08 NOVEMBER)
> POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY:
> MODERATE - HIGH
> POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
> MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS
> ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
> EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE
> OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR
> TO GOOD
> AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE
> FROM...
> SOUTHERN OREGON TO NORTHERN UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO
> NORTHERN KANSAS
> TO MISSOURI TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.
> ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE
> FROM...
> SOUTHERN FRANCE TO NORTHERN ITALY TO SLOVENIA TO HUNGARY TO
> NORTHERN
> ROMANIA TO NORTHERN MOLDOVA TO UKRAINE TO CENTRAL RUSSIA. MOST
> OF NEW
> ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT
> PERIODS
> OF ACTIVITY. THERE IS ALSO A *SLIGHT* CHANCE EXTREME SOUTHERN
> REGIONS OF
> CHILE AND ARGENTINA MAY SPOT BRIEF PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.
> SYNOPSIS...
> Auroral activity is expected to intensify to storm levels
> following the
> anticipated arrival of a potentially strong coronal mass
> ejection early in
> the UTC day of 06 November (evening hours of 05 November over
> North America).
> The disturbance is expected to last approximately 18 to 24
> hours. The moon is
> roughly 70% illuminated during this period of time and will
> therefore prove
> to be somewhat of a hinderance to observing activity once it
> rises higher in
> the sky. Nevertheless, activity could become intense enough at
> times to
> override the influence of the moon.
> This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 07
> November. It
> will then be updated or allowed to expire.
> PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
> http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html Other Tools:
> o Monitor real-time conditions and report sightings using
> software at:
> http://www.spacew.com/aurora o On-line global discussion
> forum:
> http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html o Chat in real-time
> with others using IRC at:
> http://www.spacew.com/irc and join the #aurora channel (type
> /join #aurora in the IRC software).
> o Real-time notification of events via Digital SMS:
> http://www.spacew.com/sms ** End of Warning **
POTENTIAL MAJOR/SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING
ISSUED: 06:30 UTC, 05 NOVEMBER 2001
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(See Appended Comments for Synoptic Information)
VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC 06 NOV
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC 07 NOV
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 06 NOV (UTC days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 05 - 07 NOV
POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MAJOR
POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MAJOR - SEVERE
POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM: APPROX 24 HOURS
DURATION OF MAIN BELT OF ACTIVITY: 12 TO 18 HOURS
POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 8
POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 9
EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX: 6
EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX: 6 - 7
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: MODERATE
POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MINOR
EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: HIGH
POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MAJOR
EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: FAIR TO VERY POOR
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: HIGH
POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: SEVERE
EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: RADIO BLACKOUT TO VERY POOR
POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS: 80%
SUSPECTED SOURCE OF OBSERVED/EXPECTED ACTIVITY:
A major X-class solar flare and associated Earth-directed coronal mass
ejection observed on 04 November.
--------------------------------- ---------------------------------
EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC IMPACT
--------------------------------- ---------------------------------
SEVERE STORM : 40 % LOW LATITUDES : MINOR
MAJOR STORM : 40 % MIDDLE LATITUDES : MAJOR
MINOR STORM : 20 % HIGH LATITUDES : SEVERE-MAJOR
ACTIVE OR LESS : 0 % POLAR LATITUDES : SEVERE-MAJOR
--------------------------------- ---------------------------------
PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 65% ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MAJOR
ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM: 60
---- ---------------
COMMENTS:
Impact expected near 06:00 UTC on 06 November, give or take up to 8 hours.
Impact is expected to be associated with a fairly strong sudden magnetic
impulse.
** End of Warning **
.
.
.
.
> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
> MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
> ISSUED: 06:20 UTC, 05 NOVEMBER 2001
> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
> *** POTENTIAL FOR HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS ***
> VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC ON 06 NOVEMBER (7 pm EST on 05
> November)
> VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 07 NOVEMBER
> HIGH RISK PERIOD: 06 NOVEMBER (UTC DAYS)
> MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 05 - 07 NOVEMBER
> PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 12, 50, 20, 12 (05 - 08 NOVEMBER)
> POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY:
> MODERATE - HIGH
> POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
> MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS
> ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
> EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE
> OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR
> TO GOOD
> AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE
> FROM...
> SOUTHERN OREGON TO NORTHERN UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO
> NORTHERN KANSAS
> TO MISSOURI TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.
> ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE
> FROM...
> SOUTHERN FRANCE TO NORTHERN ITALY TO SLOVENIA TO HUNGARY TO
> NORTHERN
> ROMANIA TO NORTHERN MOLDOVA TO UKRAINE TO CENTRAL RUSSIA. MOST
> OF NEW
> ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT
> PERIODS
> OF ACTIVITY. THERE IS ALSO A *SLIGHT* CHANCE EXTREME SOUTHERN
> REGIONS OF
> CHILE AND ARGENTINA MAY SPOT BRIEF PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.
> SYNOPSIS...
> Auroral activity is expected to intensify to storm levels
> following the
> anticipated arrival of a potentially strong coronal mass
> ejection early in
> the UTC day of 06 November (evening hours of 05 November over
> North America).
> The disturbance is expected to last approximately 18 to 24
> hours. The moon is
> roughly 70% illuminated during this period of time and will
> therefore prove
> to be somewhat of a hinderance to observing activity once it
> rises higher in
> the sky. Nevertheless, activity could become intense enough at
> times to
> override the influence of the moon.
> This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 07
> November. It
> will then be updated or allowed to expire.
> PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
> http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html Other Tools:
> o Monitor real-time conditions and report sightings using
> software at:
> http://www.spacew.com/aurora o On-line global discussion
> forum:
> http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html o Chat in real-time
> with others using IRC at:
> http://www.spacew.com/irc and join the #aurora channel (type
> /join #aurora in the IRC software).
> o Real-time notification of events via Digital SMS:
> http://www.spacew.com/sms ** End of Warning **
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