STD update (05 NOVEMBER 2001, 20:25 UTC)

[Ulrich Rieth]

LAST UPDATE: 05 NOVEMBER 2001, 20:25 UTC (3:23 pm EST 05 November):

Update: A strong substorm has developed in the eastern European/southern
Finland/Northern Russia region over the last several minutes. This is likely
in response to a sustained southward turning of the IMF near 19:30 UTC.

The large CME disturbance has not yet impacted, but is likely to impact
within the next several hours.

A transient in the solar wind (possibly related to earlier CME activity on
the southeast limb and/or the partial halo CME of 01/02 November) has
boosted solar wind characteristics. Although no significant auroral activity
has yet been observed, the potential for periods of moderate auroral
enhancements currently exists. The IMF is primarily in a northward
configuration which is helping to keep conditions fairly quiet.

We are anticipating the arrival of a much stronger disturbance in the solar
wind from yesterdays X-class solar flare and associated full-halo CME within
the next 24 hours. Auroral activity may intensify to major storm levels at
that time with the potential for widespread middle latitude sightings of
auroral activity.

[Herwig, Rostock]

Also 1930UT nur IMF/substorm statt Ankunft X1-Danke. *o.T.*

[Herwig, Rostock]

> LAST UPDATE: 05 NOVEMBER 2001, 20:25 UTC (3:23 pm EST 05
> November):

> Update: A strong substorm has developed in the eastern
> European/southern
> Finland/Northern Russia region over the last several minutes.
> This is likely
> in response to a sustained southward turning of the IMF near
> 19:30 UTC.

> The large CME disturbance has not yet impacted, but is likely to
> impact
> within the next several hours.

> A transient in the solar wind (possibly related to earlier CME
> activity on
> the southeast limb and/or the partial halo CME of 01/02
> November) has
> boosted solar wind characteristics. Although no significant
> auroral activity
> has yet been observed, the potential for periods of moderate
> auroral
> enhancements currently exists. The IMF is primarily in a
> northward
> configuration which is helping to keep conditions fairly quiet.

> We are anticipating the arrival of a much stronger disturbance
> in the solar
> wind from yesterdays X-class solar flare and associated
> full-halo CME within
> the next 24 hours. Auroral activity may intensify to major storm
> levels at
> that time with the potential for widespread middle latitude
> sightings of
> auroral activity.

Aus RSGA 05/2210 UT:

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The greater than
100 MeV proton event that started on 04 November continued through
out the period and flux levels continued to climb, closing out the
day at 102 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton event also continued
to escalate flux levels, closing the period at 17,000 pfu. Both
proton events originated from the X1/3b flare from Region 9684, that
occurred on 04/1620 UTC. Subsequent flares may have contributed to
the continued proton flux increase. A polar cap absorption event
remains in progress.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active to major storm levels on the first day of the
forecast period. A coronal mass ejection (CME) from the X1 event on
04 November is expected to impact the geomagnetic field early on 06
November. Major storming is expected with isolated severe storming
possible at higher latitudes. Conditions are expected to decrease to
unsettled to minor storming on the second day and quiet to active on
the third. However additional CME's may have been produced by
several long duration flares that occurred after the X1 event. It is
nearly impossible to detect these events as the LASCO imagery has
been degraded by the current proton storm. If there are subsequent
CME's, the geomagnetic storming could continue into the second and
third day of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 99/99/99
PCAF in progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 235
Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 235/235/235
90 Day Mean 05 Nov 207
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 060/075-030/030-015/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/50/35
Minor storm 40/25/15
Major-severe storm 30/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor storm 30/35/15
Major-severe storm 50/35/15

[Heiko]

Wie deutest Du das nun ?
Schlafen gehen oder wach bleiben ?

Gruss Heiko

[Herwig, Rostock]

Weit weg kann der X 1 kaum sein, nur 1-7 Std.?? *o.T.*