Heute komm ich ;) *o.T.* *PIC*

[X-Class flare aus 9660]

Heute komm ich *o.T.* *PIC*

[Herwig, Rostock]

Dat ward ok bilütten tied (wird auch langsam Zeit) *o.T.*

[Ulrich Rieth]

Lüge !!! *o.T.*

[Herwig, Rostock]

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 11-NOV-2001 19:17:58 UT NOAA 9690, S18W06.
Beta-gamma-delta region. Region is mostly unchanged from yesterday. Still maintains E-W magnetic
inversion line and delta configuration in the trailing sunspots. C-class and M-class events with a
chance for a X-class event.
http://www.bbso.njit.edu/arm/20011112/9690.html

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar
activity was moderate, due to a single M-class event during the period. Region 9690 (S18W09)
produced an M1/Sf flare at 11/1103 UTC. Region 9690 remains a relatively large sunspot group
with a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. This region remained active through out
the period, producing numerous C-class flares and nearly continuous optical flaring. Spotless Region
9686 (N15W78) produced a C5/Sf flare at 11/0035 UTC. Region 9697 (N11E76) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at mostly moderate levels with the chance
of an isolated major flare from Region 9690.

SOLAR DAILY FLARE FORECAST ( >= M class)
from LEARMONTH SPOTS SUMMARY 0010 UT ON 12/11/01
RGN# Class Rate Prob
9687 BXO 0.01 1.0%
9688 AXX 0.02 1.8%
9690 FKC 2.29 89.9%
9691 HSX 0.03 2.6%
9692 EKO 0.71 51.0%
9693 AXX 0.02 1.8%
9694 HSX 0.03 2.6%
9695 CAO 0.10 9.2%
9697 HAX 0.11 10.0%
Total regions = 9 Flare Rate = 3.3/day
Daily flare probability = 96.3%

IPS 0247 UT:
#RGN 9690: BROKEN INTENSITY 2 PLAGE. BETA-GAMMA-DELTA GROUP WITH 81
SPOTS SEEN IN WHITE LIGHT. MORE SPOTS VISIBLE TODAY. 0-FAINT FLARE FROM
0206-0212UT. MINOR POINT BRIGHTENINGS AS WELL THIS PERIOD. VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY. NO DALAS NOTED.##

STAR 0340 UT:
Region 9690 did not change much and still has an interesting magnetic delta structure in the trailing
spots section. A major flare is possible.

IPS 0600 UT:
#RGN 9690: MINOR POINT BRIGHTENINGS THIS PERIOD. MOSTLY CONCENTRATED
ON THE EAST END OF REGION. NO FLARE, NO DALAS NOTED.##

IPS 0847 UT:
#RGN 9690: 0-FAINT FLARE FROM 0736-0740UT. MINOR BRIGHTENINGS AND DARK
SURGES ALSO SEEN THIS PERIOD. NO DALAS NOTED.##

[Ulrich Rieth]

...aber die Realität sagt doch eindeutig, dass kaum noch Flare-Aktivität da ist.
Außerdem ist die günstigste Position auch schon überschritten, wenn man bei der südlichen Lage überhaupt jemals von günstig sprechen konnte.
Ich für meinen Teil habe 9690 abgehackt. War nett anzusehen und hat ein schönes M-Flare Stakkato hingelagt, aber mehr auch nicht.
Ich vertraue mehr auf die Region hinterm Ostrand, die eben den langen C-Flare hingelegt hat.
Siehe GOES SXI Bild (png-Format): http://www.dxlc.com/solar/SXI_20011112_0930.png
Wobei auch die wieder eine furchtbar südliche Position hat.
Gruß

Ulrich

[Herwig, Rostock]

Sorry, vergaß den Satz, dass die Luft wohl raus ist. *o.T.*

[Peter Kuklok]

...kleines, niedliches Beta-Fleckchen. Meinst Du nicht auch, dass Du einen Monat zu spät dran bist?